SAIC Group (600104) 2019H1 review: the worst point has been reduced costs and increased efficiency to meet the gold nine silver ten
Event: The company announced its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved a total operating income of 3762.
9 ‰, a decrease of 19 per year.
05%, achieving a net profit of 137.
600 million, down 27 a year.
49%, deducting non-attribution net profit 124.
9 trillion, down 27 a year.
6%, in line with market expectations.
Guowuqing’s inventory pressure and sales fluctuations affected Q2’s profit, and its revenue was in line with market expectations.
In 2019H1, the company’s revenue / attribution net profit decreased by 19 year-on-year.
05% / 27.
49%, the overall production / sales of the group fell by 20 in two years.
80% / 16.
62%, 13% lower than the industry’s overall production / sales volume.
7% / 12.
4% is slightly weaker.
The company’s passenger car / commercial vehicle sales decreased by 17 respectively.
6% / 9.
6%, which is also weaker than the industry passenger / commercial vehicle12.
9% / 6.
Decline of 7% over ten years.
Due to the destocking of National Five, the company’s selling expenses increased, and at the same time, the decline in fixed-site sales increased amortization of fixed costs. In the second quarter of 2019, the company’s revenue / net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 22 respectively.
09% / 40.
56%, performance in line with market expectations.
Terminal discounts under the pressure of destocking weighed on joint venture performance.
① SAIC Volkswagen’s 2019H1 sales fell 9% year-on-year.
94%, with a strong German brand product performance conversion industry, of which Tiguan / brand new Santana through 28% / 22% caused major drag.
Revenue / net profit declines by 19 per year.
1% / 36.
1%, to achieve a bicycle income of 12.
270,000 yuan (2018H1 13.
670,000 yuan), at least -10.
23%, bicycle net profit 1.
08 million yuan (2018H1 1.
520,000 yuan), the previous ten years 29.
In addition to total sales, SAIC Volkswagen’s terminal discount rate reached 9 in the second quarter of 2019.
9%, affecting bicycle profits.
② SAIC-GM’s sales each decrease by 12.91%, revenue / profit declines by 18 per year.
3% / 30.
6%, the main models of Buick Encoway / Buick GL8 / Wieland / Chevrolet Cowardes continued to drop 44% / 62% / 52% 18% drag.
Achieve bicycle income10.
960,000 yuan (2018H1 11.
680,000 yuan), at least -6.
23%, bicycle net profit is 0.
850,000 yuan (2018H1 1.
07 million yuan), 20 years later.
2019Q2 Chevrolet / Buick / Cadillac discount rates are 17 respectively.
6% / 13.
6% / 16.
5%, higher terminal discounts caused an increase in bicycle profits over revenue increases.
③ SAIC passenger car H1 sales increased by 13%.
18%, interest rate 8 in the second quarter.
75%, the smallest maximum, mainly driven by new energy, sales of major models RX5 decreased by 50%. It is expected that Roewe RX5-MAX will be officially launched in August 2019. It will be equipped with an LCD meter and a four-curved large screen to create a smart seat bay.Become a new model in the second half of the explosion.
④ The breakthrough in sales volume of Shanghai Tongwuling Co., Ltd. has a contradictory impact on the company’s revenue, which fluctuated 29 during the same period in the first half of 2019.
19% in the second quarter exceeded 33.
75%, mainly the 2019H1 main model Wuling Hongguang / Baojun 310/510 appeared 25% / 64% / 73% position.
Achieve bicycle income4.
920,000 yuan (2018H1 4.
900,000 yuan), rising by 0 every year.
39%, bicycle net profit is 0.
110,000 yuan (2018H1 0.
190,000 yuan), 41 years before.
The initial revenue target is 6.5 million vehicles. In the second half of the year, the gold, silver and silver industries will catalyze the recovery of the industry.
The company’s first-class vehicle sales target is 6.5 million, which has reached 293 in the first half of the year.
70,000 vehicles, the sales target for the second half of the year is 356.
270,000 vehicles (an increase of 0 per year).
88%), due to the decrease in the base in the second half of last year, and the 夜来香体验网 overall recovery and gradual progress of the industry is significant.
It is expected that through the catalysis of gold, silver and ten in the second half of the year, the passenger car market will gradually recover. Overlapping t-cross, Buick Oncoway, and Roewe RX5-MAX will increase the listing. The company will achieve its sales target in the second half of the year and improve its performance.
Sihua leads the way in continuous innovation, and the internationalization process continues to accelerate.
In terms of electrification, the development of the second-generation plug-in electric drive transmission in 2019H1 has been completed. The E-frame and electric shaft development of electric vehicles has been accelerated. The 300-type fuel cell stack project is close to world-class. The 400-type start-up research and 10武汉夜生活网0,000 sets of SAIC Infineon IGBTs. The module is offline.
In terms of intelligent network connection, the Marvel X Pro with the last mile automatic parking function was released for mass production; the intelligent decision domain controller i-ECU achieved batch production, and Zebra Zhixing 3.
0 officially released, the development of a new generation of intelligent cockpit started.
In terms of sharing, the company’s average daily travel order exceeded 30,000 orders, and Xiangdao car rental provides corporate users with travel services.
In addition, the company’s internationalization process accelerated, the Indian base was completed and put into operation, and MG accelerated the opening of the Indian market.
Revise down earnings forecast and maintain BUY rating.Due to pressure from the automotive industry, we lowered our profit forecast.
It is estimated that SAIC’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 31.2 billion, 33.6 billion, and 37.1 billion (the budget is estimated to be 35.5, 38.2, and 40.7 billion, down 12%, 12%, and 9%, respectively). The company is currently at an estimated low level and its alpha attribute is strongIn 2017, the core employees held shares to release the ban in January 2020 at a price of 22.
8 yuan, full margin of safety, maintaining the buy level, currently expected to correspond to 2019-2021 PE is 9 times, 9 times and 8 times.